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Project: CLICO
Country: Egypt
Size: 2 679 km²


The city of Alexandria is exposed to a combination of climate change-induced sea level rise, drought hazards and surface water pollution problems: if no protection measures are undertaken a 0.5 m sea level rise is expected to inundate 30% of the city, which would involve the displacement of 1.5 million people, the loss of 195,000 jobs and of land and property worth US$ 30 billion. Moreover, pollution of freshwater resources in the area such as Lake Mariut has negative consequences on the livelihoods of local fishermen and could lead to increased competition over the declining fish population particularly in a context of rapid population growth. At the moment, cities like Alexandria are expanding because on in-migration and natural population growth, and tensions between people who will be displaced and others, between different economic sectors, and between various social groups who will have different access rights or possibilities to clean water are to be expected. The case study will explore how climate change scenarios, actual impacts associated with climate change and hydro-conflicts among different land-uses (e.g. urban infrastructures vs. agriculture), populations (e.g. within the city and city vs. surrounding rural areas) and services are developing.

The study will systematise the conflict lines and the different implications of climate change related hazards and hydro-conflicts. A second task will consist in the development of a framework to assess the vulnerability, migration and conflict potential of the different trends and the existing conflicts that are already visible regarding climate change impacts. Lastly, the case study will also provide a good basis to explore how urban and regional development plans could take into account actual and future hydro-conflicts, climate change and vulnerability reduction. In this way, this case study will help address one of CLICO's major objectives which is to look at the underexplored theme of hazard specificity, its interactions with vulnerability and the causal routes between vulnerability, impacts, conflicts and security.


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